Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov Preview 2026: Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

After Khalil Rountree Jr. withdrew through injury, former UFC light heavyweight champion Magomed Ankalaev will now headline UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi against dangerous Uzbek knockout artist Bogdan Guskov. The late replacement has changed the complexion of the event, but South African MMA fans still have a massive event to look forward to.

On paper, this is a classic striker versus all-round technician matchup. Guskov possesses genuine one-punch knockout power, while Ankalaev remains one of the most complete light heavyweights in the world with elite kickboxing, strong wrestling and excellent fight IQ.

For punters, the question is simple: Can Guskov pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year, or will Ankalaev remind everyone why he spent years at the top of the division?

Fight Details:

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov
• Date: Saturday, 25 July 2026
• Venue: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi
• Division: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs / 93Kg)
• Rounds: Five

Following Khalil Rountree’s withdrawal, Bogdan Guskov accepted the opportunity on short notice to compete in his first UFC main event. Guskov is ranked inside the top ten after building an impressive run that includes finishes in all 18 of his professional victories.

Form Guide

Magomed Ankalaev:

Losing the belt last year ended an outstanding unbeaten run inside the UFC, but Ankalaev remains the benchmark for consistency in the division. His patient striking, defensive awareness and underrated grappling make him one of the toughest puzzles in mixed martial arts.

Expect him to avoid unnecessary risks and slowly dismantle Guskov rather than chasing an early finish.

Bogdan Guskov:

Few fighters carry finishing power quite like Guskov.

Every one of his professional victories has come inside the distance, with most coming before the judges could even get comfortable. His willingness to exchange makes him entertaining, but this represents a huge jump in competition.

Stepping into a five-round main event against one of the division’s smartest tacticians is the toughest challenge of his career.

The opening round should be Guskov’s biggest opportunity. He’ll likely come forward aggressively looking for an early knockout before Ankalaev settles into his rhythm. If Ankalaev survives the initial pressure—and history suggests he usually does—expect him to begin controlling distance with kicks, straight left hands and timely takedowns.

The longer this contest lasts, the more it favours the Russian. Cardio, experience and championship-level composure all point towards Ankalaev taking over during the championship rounds.

• Magomed Ankalaev 1.30
• Bogdan Guskov 3.75

Odds are approximate at the time of writing and may vary between bookmakers. If you’re unsure about how odds work. Take the the time to read our guide explaining betting odds.

 Magomed Ankalaev to Win by Decision @ 2.30
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ankalaev rarely fights recklessly against dangerous punchers. Expect a measured performance where he neutralises Guskov’s offence before comfortably winning on the judges’ scorecards.

Bogdan Guskov absolutely has the power to shock anyone. Unfortunately for him, Ankalaev isn’t the type of fighter who gets drawn into wild exchanges. His patience, defensive awareness and superior wrestling should gradually take the sting out of Guskov’s offence before controlling the later rounds.

Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins via Unanimous Decision (49-46).