Australia vs Italy Prediction, Odds & Best Bets
Italy With Something to Prove
The inaugural Nations Championship reaches Round 3 with plenty still on the line as Australia welcome Italy to Perth on Saturday, 18 July. For the Wallabies, this is about more than just picking up a win. It’s a chance to end a disappointing run, restore confidence before the November leg of the tournament and give outgoing coach Joe Schmidt the send-off he deserves before Les Kiss takes over the reins.
For Italy, it’s another opportunity to prove that last year’s famous victory over Australia wasn’t a once-off. The Italians have developed into a far more competitive Test side in recent seasons and won’t travel to Western Australia expecting to make up the numbers.
Match Details:
- Competition: Nations Championship Round 3
- Date: Saturday, 18 July 2026
- Kick-off: 12:10 SAST
- Venue: HBF Park, Perth
Australia Looking to Bounce Back
The Wallabies have suffered a difficult start to the tournament, with narrow defeats that exposed familiar problems. Poor discipline, inconsistent second-half performances and missed opportunities have all cost them dearly.
Flyhalf Ben Donaldson is pushing for a return after recovering from a calf injury, which would provide much needed direction in attack. Australia’s coaching staff have also identified accuracy at the breakdown and improved discipline as major priorities heading into this clash.
Adding extra motivation is the fact that this will be Joe Schmidt’s final match before Les Kiss officially takes over as Wallabies head coach.
Italy Won’t Be Easy Beats
Italy have lost their opening two Nations Championship matches but continue to show flashes of the attacking rugby that has made them one of Europe’s fastest improving sides.
The visitors will be without lock Niccolò Cannone, who is suspended, but players like Paolo Garbisi, Tommaso Menoncello and captain Michele Lamaro remain capable of troubling any defence.
Australia have beaten Italy 20 times historically, but the Italians have won the last two meetings, including a memorable victory in Europe during 2025. While history favours the Wallabies, recent form suggests this fixture could be much closer than those numbers indicate.
Australia vs Italy Betting odds
- Australia Win 1.12
- Italy Win 6.05
- Australia -17.5 Handicap 1.90
- Italy +17.5 Handicap 1.90
- Australia 1-12 Winning Margin 3.50
Odds are approximate at the time of writing and may vary between bookmakers. If you’re unsure about how odds work. Take the the time to read our guide explaining betting odds.
Best Bet for Australia vs Italy
Australia -16.5 Handicap @ 1.90
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Australia have too much to play for.
With Schmidt’s farewell, home advantage, likely improvements in selection and the urgency of ending their losing streak, the Wallabies should finally produce an 80-minute performance. Italy are improving, but missing Cannone weakens their forward pack significantly.
Top 5 Bets for Australia vs Italy
| Bet | Approx. Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Australia -16.5 Handicap | 1.90 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 5/5 |
| 2. Australia to Win | 1.12 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 4/5 |
| 3. Australia by 13+ Points | 1.75 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 4/5 |
| 4. Total Match Points Over 49.5 | 1.90 | ⭐⭐⭐ 3/5 |
| 5. First Try Scorer – Australian Forward | 3.50 | ⭐⭐⭐ 3/5 |
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Australia vs Italy Prediction
Italy are no longer international pushovers, but Australia know this is a match they simply cannot afford to lose.
Expect the Wallabies to start fast, dominate territory through their forward pack and finally convert pressure into points.
Italy should remain competitive during periods of the game, but Australia’s superior depth should tell towards the end.
Prediction: Australia 34-17 Italy
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