New Zealand vs Italy Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | Nations Championship 2026
A Possible Point-Fest for the All-Blacks
The All Blacks continue their Nations Championship campaign this weekend when they welcome Italy in what promises to be another entertaining Test match. After edging France in an exhilarating opening fixture, New Zealand will be eager to tighten up defensively before sterner challenges await, while Italy arrive full of confidence after continuing their impressive rise under Gonzalo Quesada.
Although Italy have improved significantly over the past two seasons, facing the All Blacks on New Zealand soil remains among the toughest assignments in international rugby.
Match Details:
- Competition: Nations Championship 2026
- Fixture: New Zealand vs Italy
- Date: Saturday, 11 July 2026
- Kick-off (South Africa): 07:10 SAST
Team Overview
New Zealand began the Dave Rennie era with an entertaining victory over France. While the attacking rugby delighted supporters, the coaching staff admitted there is still plenty to improve, particularly around defensive organisation and discipline after allowing France back into the contest. Those areas have reportedly been a major focus during training this week.
Captain Ardie Savea continues to lead from the front, while Damian McKenzie remains the creative spark capable of unlocking any defence. Expect the All Blacks to look for a faster start after allowing France to remain within striking distance for much of the first Test.
Italy, meanwhile, continue to grow into one of world rugby’s most improved teams. Gonzalo Quesada has transformed the Azzurri into a disciplined, confident side that no longer fears the traditional heavyweights. Players such as Tommaso Menoncello, Paolo Garbisi, Michele Lamaro and Ange Capuozzo give Italy genuine attacking quality.
However, maintaining intensity for the full 80 minutes against New Zealand remains their biggest challenge.
Team News
New Zealand
The All Blacks are expected to retain the majority of the squad that edged France, although several rotational changes could be made given the short turnaround. The coaching staff have stressed improvements around:
- Defensive structure
- Breakdown efficiency
- Discipline
- Finishing scoring opportunities
Those improvements could make New Zealand even more dangerous this weekend.
Italy
Italy should once again rely on the experienced spine of:
- Michele Lamaro
- Paolo Garbisi
- Juan Ignacio Brex
- Tommaso Menoncello
- Ange Capuozzo
Their physicality at the breakdown and willingness to attack from deep have become major strengths under Quesada.
New Zealand vs Italy Betting odds
- New Zealand to Win. 1.02
- Draw. 51.00
- Italy to Win. 36.00
Odds are approximate at the time of writing and may vary between bookmakers. If you’re unsure about how odds work. Take the the time to read our guide explaining betting odds.
Best Bet for New Zealand vs Italy
New Zealand -22.5 Handicap @ 1.90
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The All Blacks often finish strongly at home, while Italy’s bench depth still struggles against elite opposition over the final quarter.
Top 5 Bets for New Zealand vs Italy
| Bet | Approx. Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1. New Zealand -22.5 Handicap | 1.90 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 5/5 |
| 2. New Zealand to score Over 5.5 tries | 1.82 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 4/5 |
| 3. Total Match Points Over 56.5 | 1.95 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 4/5 |
| 4. Both Teams to Score 2+ Tries | 1.80 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 4/5 |
| 5. Damian McKenzie Anytime Try Scorer | 2.40 | ⭐⭐⭐ 3/5 |
If you’re new to betting on rugby and are unsure about how rugby betting markets work. Take the time to read our Rugby betting strategy guide.
New Zealand vs Italy Prediction
Italy are no longer the pushovers they once were. Their Six Nations performances showed they can compete physically with Tier One nations, and they possess enough attacking talent to score against anyone. However, New Zealand appear determined to sharpen their game after the France scare. The All Blacks rarely produce two below-par performances in succession, particularly at home.
Expect Italy to stay competitive during the opening half before New Zealand’s superior depth, pace and fitness begin to tell.
Prediction: New Zealand 42-19 Italy
Best Betting Sites for Rugby Betting
+ 100 free spins
✓ Live betting
✓ Extensive coverage
✓ Fast payouts
+ R15 free bet & 15 free spins
✓ Big sport variety
✓ Great odds
✓ Good betting options
New Zealand vs Italy rugby nations FAQ’s
The Most Common Questions Answered
Responsible Gambling: Betting involves financial risk. Gambling can be addictive. Only bet what you can afford to lose. winners know when to stop. This content is for users 18+. The National Responsible Gambling Programme helpline: 0800 006 008 or WhatsApp “Help” to 076 675 0710. All platforms listed are licensed by the relevant South African provincial gambling boards.
NOBULL BETTING
South Africa’s honest betting site reviews. We test, verify, and rate, so you don’t have to. Independent, updated monthly, zero paid placements. By using this website, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. NoBull Betting provides independent betting information and editorial content for general information purposes only and does not offer financial or legal advice. We do not guarantee results or outcomes. You must be 18+ to use this site and to bet online.
© 2026 NoBull Betting · Affiliate disclosure: We earn commission when you click through and register. This does not affect our rankings. · 18+ only · Gamble responsibly.